Everyone has an opinion of what the real estate market is really doing.

Here are the states from the Pros, MLSPIN, the multiple listing service for Massachusetts....http://www.mlspin.com/news/reports/Economic_And_Market_Watch_Report_Q2_2005.pdf


The market in Massachusetts has always been season.
I do about 80% of business I do from Feb-June.
Pretty much the rest is off season.

Its not that I don't sell during that time, Its just that people who PLAN to move seem to move during that time.

Existing-Home Sales Rise to Second Highest on Record

WASHINGTON (September 26, 2005) – Existing-home sales rose in August to the second-highest pace on record, with strong price gains in a market of tight supply, according to the National Association of Realtors®.Total existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – increased 2.0 percent in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 7.29 million from a pace of 7.15 million in July. Sales were 7.8 percent higher than the 6.76 million-unit pace in August 2004; the record was 7.35 million in June of this year.David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said the fundamental factors for housing remain positive. “With a general background of growing population and favorable affordability conditions, home sales are staying at very healthy levels,” he said. “Housing inventory improved in August but remains tight, and we have some way to go before we get into a range of balance between home buyers and sellers. As a result, we’ll continue to see above-normal home price appreciation for the foreseeable future.”Total housing inventory levels rose 3.5 percent at the end of August to 2.86 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 4.7-month supply at the current sales pace. Historically, a supply of around six months is reflective of a market in balance between home buyers and sellers.The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $220,000 in August, up 15.8 percent from August 2004 when the median price was $190,000. The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less. This is the strongest rate of appreciation since July 1979 when annual price growth was 17.2 percent.According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 5.82 percent in August, up from 5.70 percent in July; the rate was 5.87 percent in August 2004.NAR President Al Mansell of Salt Lake City said there was some disruption from Hurricane Katrina at the end of August, but there was no measurable impact on August sales. “There will be a mixed impact in figures over the next couple months with total disruption in the hurricane disaster zone, offset by spiking sales from displaced residents in nearby regions which escaped heavy damage,” he said.“Unfortunately, multiple listing services in some of the affected areas are out of commission and we can’t get direct data. We’ve been talking with member boards and associations in those areas for an anecdotal feel, but some data is missing from our measurements for the South.”Mansell personally traveled to affected areas in the Gulf Coast region to meet with state and local Realtor® associations and boards, and to dispense relief checks. To date, the Realtors® Relief Foundation has collected more than $4.1 million to provide emergency relief for hurricane victims; administrative costs are absorbed by NAR.Single-family home sales increased 1.9 percent to a record seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.35 million in August from 6.23 million in June, and were 6.9 percent above the 5.94 million-unit level in August 2004. The median single-family home price was $219,400 in August, up 16.2 percent from a year ago.Existing condominium and cooperative housing sales rose 2.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 942,000 units from an upwardly revised pace of 922,000 in July, and was second only to a record of 963,000 in June of this year. Last month’s sales level was 14.3 percent above the 824,000-unit pace in August 2004. The median condo price was $226,800, 2 up 14.5 percent from a year ago.Regionally, total existing-home sales in the West rose 5.6 percent to a pace of 1.69 million units in August, and were 8.3 percent higher than August 2004. The median existing-home price in the West was $322,000, up 20.1 percent from a year ago.Existing-home sales in the Midwest increased 1.9 percent to a record annual sales rate of 1.64 million in August, and were 6.5 percent higher than a year earlier. The median price in the Midwest was $176,000, which was 11.4 percent higher than August 2004.Total existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 1.7 percent to an annual pace of 1.21 million in August, and were 8.0 percent above August 2004. The median price in the Northeast was $254,000, up 16.5 percent from a year ago.Existing-home sales in the South slipped 0.4 in August to a level of 2.74 million, but were 7.5 percent higher than a year earlier. The median price in the South was $189,000, up 9.9 percent from August 2004.View ChartsThe National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
# # #1The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns.Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which generally account for 85 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger sample – nearly 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.2Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price is higher than the median single-family price. In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes.Existing-home sales for September will be released October 25. The next Pending Home Sales Index will be on October 5 and the forecast will be revised October 12.

Beware of Specialty mortgages

New NAR-CRL Brochure Advises Buyer Caution With Specialty Mortgages WASHINGTON (August 18, 2005) – Homebuyers may not realize that monthly payments on some types of specialty mortgages can increase by as much as 50 percent or more when the introductory period ends. That’s one of the messages that the National Association of Realtors® and the Center for Responsible Lending are trying to drive home in “Shopping for a Mortgage? Do Your Homework First,” a new brochure to inform homebuyers about the risks and advantages of specialty mortgage products. The publication is part of a new NAR consumer education campaign addressing specialty loans and abusive lending practices. The brochure helps consumers understand conventional loans such as fixed rate and adjustable rate mortgages, and more exotic loan programs, including interest-only mortgages, 40-year fixed-rate mortgages, negative amortization mortgages, and option payment adjustable-rate mortgages. “The growth of the specialty mortgage market has helped many borrowers finance the American dream of homeownership, but these mortgages come with risks,” said NAR President Al Mansell of Salt Lake City. “Consumers are susceptible to loans with monthly payments that can spike dramatically, or that actually increase the amount they owe on their home. Homebuyers should consult with a Realtor® to learn about different financing options and their implications over time.”“We’re warning homebuyers to approach these new mortgages carefully,” said Mike Calhoun, general counsel of the Center for Responsible Lending. “They should be cautious about accepting a mortgage they can’t afford. These mortgages can be devastating for families who are stretching their budget to buy a home.”David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said, “Consumers particularly need to understand the risks inherent in specialty mortgages when financing a home purchase. The National Association of Realtors® is committed to giving our Realtor® members the tools and knowledge essential for their customers’ success.” Because homebuyers turn first to Realtors® for advice on the real estate transaction, NAR is making the brochure available online to all of its 1 million-plus members at www.realtor.org. Buyers can ask their Realtors® for a copy or can access the brochure on NAR’s consumer Web site at www.realtor.com. The brochure also is available through the Center for Responsible Lending at www.responsiblelending.org.The State of the Nation’s Housing 2005, issued by The Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, cites information from Loan Performance indicating that one in four home loans in 2004 was financed with an interest-only mortgage. Three years ago, these mortgages comprised only a few percentage points of the total mortgage market. In testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services on July 20, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan expressed concern about the “increase in the prevalence of interest-only loans and the introduction of more exotic forms of adjustable rate mortgages.” He suggested that some homebuyers may be using these loans to buy houses that they might not otherwise afford, and warned that lenders should “fully appreciate the risk that some households may have trouble meeting monthly payments as interest rates and the macroeconomic climate change.”In May, NAR’s Board of Directors approved launching a new consumer education campaign through its membership to help consumers avoid the pitfalls of predatory lending practices that often threaten potential homebuyers with credit problems and, possibly, the loss of their home. The campaign aims to develop standards that balance the need to keep credit available for borrowers with less than perfect credit while avoiding abusive lending practices that put homebuyers at unnecessary risk.The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.The Center for Responsible Lending is a nonprofit, nonpartisan research and policy organization dedicated to protecting homeownership and family wealth by working to eliminate abusive financial practices. CRL is affiliated with Self-Help, one of the nation’s largest community development financial institutions.
###

Real estate Market in Massachusetts for Past Month

Area Market Survey
Report Run: 9/27/2005 9:00:22 PM Property Type(s): SF, CC, MF Start Date: 8/27/2005 End Date: 9/27/2005 Towns: All of Massachusetts Active Listings
Price Range
# ofListings
Avg. Dayson Market
Under $50,000
88
74
$50,000 - $99,999
349
72
$100,000 - $149,999
997
63
$150,000 - $199,999
2329
61
$200,000 - $249,999
3451
61
$250,000 - $299,999
4778
68
$300,000 - $349,999
5256
65
$350,000 - $399,999
5487
67
$400,000 - $449,999
3778
71
$450,000 - $499,999
3287
71
$500,000 - $599,999
4264
71
$600,000 - $699,999
2489
78
$700,000 - $799,999
1574
87
$800,000 - $899,999
1054
93
$900,000 - $999,999
680
90
$1,000,000 - $1,499,999
1316
101
$1,500,000 - $1,999,999
584
114
$2,000,000 - $2,499,999
227
123
$2,500,000 - $2,999,999
175
119
$3,000,000 - $3,999,999
113
140
$4,000,000 - $4,999,999
47
166
$5,000,000 - $9,999,999
63
156
Over $10,000,000
8
272
Total Properties
42394
Avg. 72
Lowest Price: $272.99
Median Price: $389,900
Highest Price: $22,900,000
Average Price: $501,987
Total Market Volume: $21,281,269,932
Pending/Under Agreement Listings
Price Range
# ofListings
Avg. Dayson Market
Under $50,000
19
58
$50,000 - $99,999
90
46
$100,000 - $149,999
267
50
$150,000 - $199,999
601
45
$200,000 - $249,999
723
53
$250,000 - $299,999
890
61
$300,000 - $349,999
860
60
$350,000 - $399,999
804
63
$400,000 - $449,999
523
61
$450,000 - $499,999
374
62
$500,000 - $599,999
526
60
$600,000 - $699,999
283
63
$700,000 - $799,999
169
73
$800,000 - $899,999
103
74
$900,000 - $999,999
55
92
$1,000,000 - $1,499,999
97
97
$1,500,000 - $1,999,999
35
65
$2,000,000 - $2,499,999
7
123
$2,500,000 - $2,999,999
5
187
$3,000,000 - $3,999,999
6
81
$4,000,000 - $4,999,999
3
119
$5,000,000 - $9,999,999
1
77
Over $10,000,000
-
-
Total Properties
6441
Avg. 59
Lowest Price: $21,000
Median Price: $339,900
Highest Price: $5,900,000
Average Price: $396,537
Total Market Volume: $2,554,097,378
Sold Listings
Price Range
# ofListings
Avg. Dayson Market
AverageSale Price

AverageList Price
SP:LPRatio
AverageOrig Price
SP:OPRatio
Under $50,000
19
56
$29,295

$68,458
43
$75,639
39
$50,000 - $99,999
77
46
$78,295

$81,800
96
$83,332
94
$100,000 - $149,999
249
57
$128,835

$133,155
97
$135,766
95
$150,000 - $199,999
585
47
$175,809

$179,900
98
$182,557
96
$200,000 - $249,999
782
49
$225,741

$230,323
98
$237,924
95
$250,000 - $299,999
910
54
$274,249

$279,534
98
$286,191
96
$300,000 - $349,999
920
56
$324,791

$331,881
98
$339,720
96
$350,000 - $399,999
837
62
$373,357

$381,394
98
$388,890
96
$400,000 - $449,999
592
57
$423,100

$433,352
98
$442,025
96
$450,000 - $499,999
435
61
$472,883

$482,692
98
$490,758
96
$500,000 - $599,999
541
62
$545,314

$556,213
98
$568,594
96
$600,000 - $699,999
315
65
$643,585

$656,339
98
$671,522
96
$700,000 - $799,999
172
74
$745,433

$762,040
98
$776,947
96
$800,000 - $899,999
102
65
$845,017

$866,293
98
$884,628
96
$900,000 - $999,999
57
92
$944,405

$963,026
98
$995,589
95
$1,000,000 - $1,499,999
103
88
$1,203,875

$1,276,871
94
$1,318,154
91
$1,500,000 - $1,999,999
32
101
$1,665,080

$1,728,281
96
$1,778,344
94
$2,000,000 - $2,499,999
16
91
$2,194,000

$2,305,750
95
$2,446,813
90
$2,500,000 - $2,999,999
4
66
$2,574,844

$2,800,000
92
$2,861,250
90
$3,000,000 - $3,999,999
4
71
$3,398,250

$3,487,500
97
$3,487,500
97
$4,000,000 - $4,999,999
2
130
$4,325,000

$4,825,000
90
$5,000,000
86
$5,000,000 - $9,999,999
1
38
$6,475,000

$6,500,000
100
$6,500,000
100
Over $10,000,000
-
-
-

-
-
-
-
Total Properties
6755
Avg. 57
$392,669

$402,451
98
$411,787
95
Lowest Price: $460
Median Price: $340,000
Highest Price: $6,475,000
Average Price: $392,669
Total Market Volume: $2,652,480,416
Expired Listings
Price Range
# ofListings
Avg. Dayson Market
Under $50,000
7
112
$50,000 - $99,999
40
97
$100,000 - $149,999
89
99
$150,000 - $199,999
169
85
$200,000 - $249,999
298
98
$250,000 - $299,999
367
97
$300,000 - $349,999
436
100
$350,000 - $399,999
442
95
$400,000 - $449,999
301
100
$450,000 - $499,999
324
98
$500,000 - $599,999
405
99
$600,000 - $699,999
213
103
$700,000 - $799,999
102
121
$800,000 - $899,999
77
116
$900,000 - $999,999
51
131
$1,000,000 - $1,499,999
96
128
$1,500,000 - $1,999,999
41
149
$2,000,000 - $2,499,999
7
138
$2,500,000 - $2,999,999
11
232
$3,000,000 - $3,999,999
7
154
$4,000,000 - $4,999,999
1
374
$5,000,000 - $9,999,999
4
150
Over $10,000,000
-
-
Total Properties
3488
Avg. 101
Lowest Price: $19,900
Median Price: $390,000
Highest Price: $8,500,000
Average Price: $476,451
Total Market Volume: $1,661,862,877
©2005 MLS Property Information Network, Inc.

How Market Conditions Affect Your Offer Price

How Market Conditions Affect Your Offer Price
A hot market is a "seller’s market." During a seller’s market, properties can sell within a few days of being listed and there are often multiple offers. Sometimes homes even sell above the asking price. Though most buyer’s want to get a "deal" on a home, reducing your offer by even a few thousand dollars could mean that someone else will get the home you desire.
A slow market is a "buyer’s market. During a buyer’s market properties may languish on the market for some time and offers may be few and far between. Prices may even decline temporarily. Such a market would allow you to be more flexible in offering a lower price for the home. Even if your offered price is too low, the seller is likely to make some sort of counter-offer and you can begin negotiations in earnest.
More often than not, the market is simply "steady," or in transition. When a market is steady, no real rules apply on whether you should make an offer on the high end of your range or the low end. You could find yourself in a situation with multiple offers on your desired house, or where no one has made an offer in weeks.
Transition markets are more difficult to define. If the economy slows unexpectedly, as it did in the early nineties, people who buy on the high end of a seller’s market (like the late eighties) could find their home loses value for several years. So far, no one has proven reliable in predicting when markets change or how good or bad the real estate market will become.